Worked example
$500,000 of quota remaining, $1.5M of open pipeline and a 25% historical win rate, with the pipeline split into early, mid and late stages.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Quota remaining | $500,000.00 |
| Open pipeline | $1,500,000.00 |
| Historical win rate | 25% |
| Early-stage amount | $700,000.00 |
| Early-stage probability | 10% |
| Mid-stage amount | $500,000.00 |
| Mid-stage probability | 30% |
| Late-stage amount | $300,000.00 |
| Late-stage probability | 60% |
| Result | Value |
|---|---|
| Pipeline coverage | 3× |
| Required coverage | 4× |
| Expected bookings at win rate | $375,000.00 |
| Stage-weighted pipeline | $400,000.00 |
| Pipeline to create | $500,000.00 |
- Coverage: open pipeline ÷ quota remaining: 3×
- Required coverage: 1 ÷ win rate: 4×
- Required pipeline: quota remaining ÷ win rate: $2,000,000.00
- Expected bookings: pipeline × win rate: $375,000.00
- Early stage: amount × probability: $70,000.00
- Mid stage: amount × probability: $150,000.00
- Late stage: amount × probability: $180,000.00
- Pipeline to create: required − open (min 0): $500,000.00
Formulas
Coverage ratio = open pipeline ÷ quota remaining
Required coverage = 1 ÷ historical win rate
Expected bookings = open pipeline × historical win rate
Stage-weighted pipeline = Σ stage amount × stage probability
Pipeline to create = quota remaining ÷ win rate − open pipeline (never below zero)
If one dollar in four closes, you need four dollars of pipeline for every dollar of quota. That is why the required coverage is the inverse of the win rate, and why a single coverage target applied to teams with different win rates can mislead.
Win rate vs stage weighting
The win-rate view treats all pipeline alike. The stage-weighted view uses a probability per stage, so a pipeline full of late-stage deals counts for more than one full of first meetings. When the two disagree, look at the stage mix and at whether your stage probabilities come from your own close history.
Track where you stand against quota with the quota attainment calculator, and check whether your team can produce the pipeline with the sales capacity calculator.
Limitations
- The win rate should be measured on value, over the same kind of pipeline and period, or the required coverage will be off.
- Timing is ignored: pipeline that will not close before the period ends should be excluded.
- We do not publish benchmark coverage ratios or win rates; use your own history.
Frequently asked questions
What is pipeline coverage?
Pipeline coverage is the ratio of open pipeline to the quota still to close. $1.5M of pipeline against $500,000 of remaining quota is 3× coverage.
How much coverage do I need?
Divide 1 by your historical win rate. A 25% win rate needs 4× coverage, a 50% win rate needs 2×. A rule-of-thumb ratio that ignores your win rate is not a reliable target.
Should I use count or value win rate?
Use the value-based win rate, the share of pipeline dollars that close, because coverage is measured in dollars.
Why do the stage amounts need to match the open pipeline?
They describe the same deals. If they do not add up, one of the two figures includes deals the other leaves out, and the two views are no longer comparable.